Nathan's Insights

Few people don’t think current Australian Prime Minister John Howard isn’t a master politician however that is very far from being a great leader which he is definitely not. John Howard in his first few years in power did show some integrity and courage (the gun reform laws) but it’s been downhill ever since and he let his 1960s view of the world (unions = bad, profits = great, environment = who cares, social justice = only solved by big business profits i.e. trickledown effect). I’m not going to go on in this post about how little truth we have in Australian politics over the last 11 years (children overboard, workplace relations reforms we never knew about, wharf dispute, core and non-core promises etc) I’ll probably talk about them when I’m calmer. I will talk about the interest rate issue and the 2004 election. The government tried (successfully) to link then opposition leader Mark Latham as an ‘L’ plate leader with no economic credibility (why Labour doesn’t stated there is more to life than a few dollars I don’t know) they stated very clearly the would keep interest rates at 30 year lows. When it was pointed out the Reserve Bank sets rates and we are in a world economy which only allows for some input (not control) by the Federal Government this message was mostly ignored (like the Children Overboard issue at the election before they didn’t want facts in the way of the message). The liberals won by a massive amount and gained control of both houses of parliament. This lead to the industrial relation ‘reforms’ they never told us about and the Student Union attacks. Fast forward to 2007 and it seems Australians have had enough. We have had 5 rate raises since the last election. Howard claims they only said they would keep rates at 30 year lows for 2 nights (the two night stand non-core promise??). However he got caught out in a tape of an interview just before the election. Was he shamed by getting caught out in a lie (claiming he never said this), no. While Howard was embarrassed to get caught out he won’t apologise, I’m not sure the guy can apologise (sorry Aboriginals you’ll never get it from this guy).

John Howard, a great politician, yes. John Howard, a truthful and a great leader, no. It’s time to go Mr Howard, enjoy the Sydney lifestyle taxpayers will fund (rightly), we know you hated Canberra. After 11 years your half truths have caught up with you and no amount of negative comments about the credible opposition will work this time. We live in a democracy and saying you have experience as they only reason to vote for you isn’t good enough (taken to its logical conclusion we should never change governments so why vote). Enjoy retirement and hopefully we will get a Senate with no majority for one party and a return to compromise and fair politics in Australia. I’m not scared at all Government’s (federal and state) being Labour, only a Federal Government with no brakes like you had for 3 years.   Goodbye.

In January 2006 I wrote about the US Dollar and the major impact it has on setting US policy around the world (linking it to the Iraq situation).   At the time I stated the US economy was way overvalued and the links in the blog include what might haven’t when people realise that they could trade in the euro. It’s interesting to see the Australian dollar among others making a very big move.   The Canadian dollar is now worth more than the US and there is a remote chance this could happen to the AUD in the next 6 months.   What does this mean?   If it continues foreign governments (if they dare) will start selling down this losing asset, this will lead to further falls (a difficult cycle to get out of).   As the US loses value so does its purchasing power, in the short term this means it costs more to buy overseas goods (but probably not from China since they link closely to the USD).

So the USA will be in the unusual situation of basic items costing more (i.e. inflation) at the same time as it economy is struggling (see sub-prime problem).   Possible high inflation with raising higher unemployment is a terrible situation for their people and government.   Normally you slash interest rates (which they have) to increase economic activity in bad economic times, but you don’t do it when you have raising inflation (as you overheat the economy).   The chickens are coming home to roast.   The Bush government, a so called conservative government, has run incredible deficits because he wanted to fund the ‘war on terror’ and at the same time offer tax cuts and also not cut services.   This is as crazy as it gets, everything in life costs you.   If the USA wants a war they need to fund it (leaving aside the obvious moral arguments) either by raising taxes, cutting services or both.   It’s hard to feel sorry for them when they voted for this plan and especially since the wider world will suffer as well in the short-medium term (short-medium term starts at 4 years in economics not that most people think pass next week). I for one however will be happy that it is cheaper to travel to places using the USD in late 2009.

I’m not a big supporter of the current Australian Liberal Federal Government however at least they had the sense to not totally blow their good fortune (the resources bloom and economic reforms starting in mid-1980s) by running deficits.   Australia’s major problem is in 4-5 years time paying for not investing in infrastructure for growth (especially human capital i.e. training/education) but the current government chose an option that is beyond their current term in office.   How Bush thought it was a good economic choice to hurt his country economically in the immediate future I have no idea other than that they have no idea of very basic (year 10) economic theory (yet alone accounting/maths).

It’s been quite some while since my last post and quiet a lot has happened.  Day 3 of my New Zealand trip saw me get back into Melbourne just in time to catch a work flight to Brisbane. What I found out in Brisbane however is my main credit card had been used on an internet gambling website. I’ll give credit to ANZ for picking it up, stopping payments and the quick fix. I haven’t posted a lot as I’ve had a hard time managing my personal life and the stress that causes. I’ve struggled with depression during this time and with the help of some friends I’ve sought professional help which has been very useful. Depression has many negative aspects to it; the biggest is people not understanding it is a health issue that is not always a reflection of your situation in life. For a long time I’ve had mental health issues which I’ve dealt with mostly by myself (I’m a male so stupid pride goes hand in hand). The incident in Paris last year plus a realisation that I’m incapable of getting some things I strongly desire in life obviously weaken my mental health management. You should check out beyond blue website for information if interested. You’d be surprised how many people are affected, and how good most people are of hiding their problems.

Tomorrow I get to make a presentation about the project I’m heading up at work. It’s probably the most important work meeting I’ve been involved in and could, if all goes well, help my career, if it goes badly it definitely will hurt any future promotions in the near term. It’s interesting that stress is really self imposed. Others can try to impose stress on yourself but really it is up to you whether you allow it or not. I write this to remind myself, I’ve allowed myself to get stressed over something which while important in a work context does really matter a great deal. Besides I’ve done my best, I’ve got a good team and we have worked very hard. If others judge us to be off the tracks that’s there call, I know some of my best and most creative work as gone into creating a new SMSF Annual Return and the associated changes to the Tax Office.

The travel side of the project will help me with lounge access on my next big world trip, which is the important thing. I’m rewarding myself with a quick holiday to Auckland this weekend. Seems I still have the travelling bug!!!

Having returned from an extended trip for work in Queensland last week (I was there from Sunday to Friday) I had a chance to reflect on my failing campaign to get my weight back down.   I’ve always known that when I travel I end up gaining weight.  Mostly this is due to bad eating and not doing anything healthy when away i.e. playing sport or going for a night walk. So I thought I’d look back and see how many days and nights I had spent away from home and I was very surprised by how many.

I’ve been interstate at least once a week since 24 April (Tuesday).   In short I’ve done the following:
Tuesday 24 April Melbourne-Sydney Return (1 day / 0 nights)
Thursday 3 May Melbourne-Canberra Return (1 day / 0 nights)
Wednesday 9 May Melbourne-Brisbane Return (1 day / 0 nights)
Thursday 17 May Melbourne-Sydney Return (1 day / 0 nights)
Monday 21 May Melbourne-Sydney Return (1 day / 0 nights)
Thursday 24 May Melbourne-Canberra Return (2 days / 1 night)
Thursday 31 May Melbourne-Canberra Return (2 days / 1 night)
Sunday 3 June Melbourne-Brisbane Return (4 days / 3 nights)
Monday 11 June Melbourne-Adelaide Return (2 days / 1 night)
Tuesday 19 June Melbourne-Brisbane Return (2 days / 1 night)
Thursday 28 June Melbourne-Adelaide Return (1 day / 0 nights)
Sunday 1 July Melbourne-Brisbane Return (6 days / 5 nights)

24 days and 12 nights, during that period, there has only been 52 working days over those 11 weeks.

I have a trip planned for this Wednesday as well but thankfully at this stage no trips planned for the week after (but another 1 each for the two weeks are that).   The project I’m running requires a lot of travel and I’m conscious that my staff located in Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide (to a lesser extent) are restricted in their travelling which sees me take up the necessary slack.

It’s little wonder I’m struggling.   I have to get my focused of my health; even with this level of travel I can do it.   No more excuses.   I took on this project and it’s going well but I need to ensure my goals are being met first.   Luckily night tennis starts up next month.